This is also a typical "butt decides the head" way of thinking. They don't consider whether making more forecasts will cause inventory backlog, high inventory capital occupation, or even cause the product to be unsalable and need to be reduced in price. Therefore, when collecting forecasts at the company level, it is not enough to just balance the forecasts, but to make the grassroots forecasters responsible for the forecast accuracy and try to be as objective as possible. In addition, when making annual forecasts at the company level, be rational and not aggressive. The high inventory problem of Vanke around 2012 was neither a channel problem nor a problem of poor information; it was overwhelmed by the rapid growth of the previous performance, and made an overly aggressive category expansion and sales forecast, and It was not distributed to the factory in batches, thus causing the problem of high inventory. 4.
Changes in demand need to be reflected in the plan at any time Demand is the source of enterprise supply chain management; changes in demand are the source of imbalance between supply and demand. In order to avoid large fluctuations in production, inventory, delivery, and capital turnover, changes in demand need to be passed down at any time, and immediately reflected in the planning process, so that the plan can be adjusted flexibly. "The change in demand needs to be reflected in the plan at any time", which seems to be a simple truth. In fact, due to the inertia of thinking and the difficulty of adjusting the structure of the supply chain, the enterprise may not be able to implement it in a short time. For example, for a clothing company that adopts the "ordering fair model", it takes about three or four months to six or seven months from ordering to product Phone Number List launch. Before the products are put on the shelves, most of the products have been produced.
If the product sells well, it is not easy to follow the order; if the product is unsalable, the inventory is overstocked. In 2011, when clothing companies generally had high inventory, there was a saying that many clothing business owners could not fall to their death by jumping from ten floors, because there were eight floors of inventory below. It can be seen that the "ordering fair model" is very unfavorable for clothing companies to respond to changes in demand. Therefore, now people like Peacebird and Vanke are learning ZARA's "fast fashion" model. The biggest advantage of this model is that it can quickly respond to changes in demand, with fast delivery and fast turnover. 5. Get the most out of your data analytics After Vanke experienced the pain of high inventory in 2012, Chen Nian once told Business Value that after a year of revisions, he turned Vanke into a data company. Due to the huge inventory pressure in 2011, aging is also concerned with data from the perspective of the supply chain, such as product purchase cycle, inventory turnover and sold out, etc.